The Supporters’ Shield race, barring one of the most surprising collapses in MLS history, is over. Inter Miami are four points ahead of their next closest challenger. And even if teams like LAFC and Columbus win all of their games in hand they’ll still be three and four points back, respectively.

The others have to be perfect from here on out. Inter Miami does not. But they might be anyway. They don’t seem to lose other than the occasional random rout while they’re on a road trip. On top of that, the rest of their schedule is kind. They’ll only face three teams over their last eight games that are higher than eighth in the East. Oh, and on top of that, Lionel Messi will return somewhere along the way. This is done.

…Unless you start looking at the underlying numbers. They’ll tell you a different story. They’ll tell you that Inter Miami’s luck is about to run out any day now. There’s no getting around it. Inter Miami are, by the statistical definition, the luckiest team in MLS history.

American Soccer Analysis uses a metric called “expected points.” It’s exactly what it sounds like. It takes the values of the chances you created and allowed and tells you how many points a typical team can expect to earn in the same circumstances. In their database going back to 2013, the team that outperformed their expected points total the most is the 2021 New England Revolution. You know, the one that won the Shield and broke the MLS points record on the back of Matt Turner’s all-time great shot-stopping, an MVP year from Carles Gil, a loaded supporting cast in attack, and a whole lot of luck. Those Revs outperformed their expected point total by 19 points throughout the season. If they had average statistical luck, they would have finished fourth in the East with 53 points instead of setting an MLS record.

Inter Miami are outperforming the 2021 Revs by a significant margin.

So far, through 26 games, the Herons are outperforming their expected point total by 0.81 points per game. If they performed at their expected points rate, they would have 35 points. 35. They’d be slightly better than Orlando City and in genuine danger of falling below the playoff line if the Lions and Toronto FC got hot. Instead, they have 56 points and the Shield in one hand.

To narrow things down even more, they’re outperforming their expected goals scored per game numbers by 0.76 per game. They’ve scored a league-high 58 goals. They’ve created 38 expected goals worth of chances.

On the defensive side, they’ve allowed 37 non-penalty goals and allowed 41 expected goals worth of chances. That’s not as extreme as their goalscoring differential, but it’s still the fifth-highest mark in the league.

It’s also a little more easily explainable. It only takes two statements: 1.) Drake Callender has been really good in goal, and 2.) They’ve been lucky. Callender is seventh in MLS this year in shot-stopping and has kept out about two goals more than your average keeper. The rest we can chalk up to “sometimes ball go in.”

The attacking side takes a little more work to flesh out, but it also only takes two statements: 1.) Luis Suárez and Lionel Messi exist, and 2.) They’ve been lucky. It probably won’t come as a surprise to you that Suárez is first among starters in MLS when it comes to xG overperformance per game. And it might come as a surprise that Messi is third because you probably would have expected him to be first or second. All told, they’ve scored about nine goals more than their combined personal xG tally.

That’s relatively typical for them though. Messi especially. There has basically been one player in the world who has consistently outperformed his underlying numbers by a significant amount over the entirety of their career, and he wears number 10 for Inter Miami. When he’s done it that well for that long, we can conclude that Messi is significantly better than the average soccer player at finishing.

Shocking, I know. That being said, per FBref’s data going back to 2017, Suarez is currently overperforming his xG by his most significant margin over that span. And even with Suárez getting a little more lucky than normal and Messi showing off a trait that made him history’s best player, that still leaves about 11 extra goals on the table.

Those 11 goals are coming from more surprising places. Per FBref, Matías Rojas, Jordi Alba, Diego Gómez, Ian Fray, Leo Afonso, Robert Taylor and Federico Redondo are all outperforming their xG by at least one goal. Rojas and Alba by more than two. Don’t get me wrong these are all great players, but they aren’t the kinds of finishers Messi and Suárez are. That’s some serious luck. Take Messi and Suarez out of the equation, 11 goals worth of overperformance would still make Inter Miami the most overperforming attack in MLS.

So, what does it mean? Well, maybe we’ve already seen what it means. They haven’t had the same luck against the best teams in the region in tournament play. They came up short against Monterrey in Concacaf Champions Cup. They came up short against Columbus in Leagues Cup. Are they going to come up short again in the MLS Cup playoffs?

I have no idea. But there’s good news either way. They aren’t going to take away the Shield just because Miami caught a break or two. And you may not need luck if Messi is fully healthy.

Seattle sign winger Minoungou: Seattle Sounders FC have signed winger Georgi Minoungou from MLS NEXT Pro affiliate Tacoma Defiance. He is under contract through 2028 with a team option for 2029. Minoungou, 22, has played five games with Seattle’s first team via short-term call-ups. He has 4g/10a in 58 career appearances for Tacoma Defiance.

Red Bulls transfer Estrela to Sporting Lisbon: The New York Red Bulls have transferred homegrown midfielder Bento Estrela to Portuguese top-flight side Sporting Lisbon for an undisclosed fee. The 18-year-old Portugal youth international turned pro in February 2021 at 14 years and 364 days old, then the fourth-youngest signing in MLS history

Good luck out there. Do the best with the circumstances you’re given.