Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers … Patrick Mahomes?
There have been six three-time MVP winners in NFL history, and Patrick Mahomes opens the 2024 season on a mission to try to make it seven after winning his first in 2018 and his second in 2022. FanDuel Sportsbook has released odds on who will win NFL MVP this season, and they’ll be updated every week of the season. Those odds not only make for a fun market to bet on, but they’re the perfect way to track a power ranking of who is most likely to win the award.
With Week 1 finally here and Mahomes taking on 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson on Thursday night, let’s get right into it and look at how the NFL MVP ranking shakes up to start the season.
NFL MVP Odds Power Rankings
|
Rank |
Player |
Team |
Odds |
Previous MVP Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Patrick Mahomes |
KC |
+450 |
2 (2018, 2022) |
|
2 |
Josh Allen |
BUF |
+800 |
– |
|
3 |
Joe Burrow |
CIN |
+1000 |
– |
|
T4 |
C.J. Stroud |
HOU |
+1100 |
– |
|
T4 |
Jalen Hurts |
PHI |
+1100 |
– |
|
6 |
Jordan Love |
GB |
+1400 |
– |
|
7 |
Lamar Jackson |
BAL |
+1500 |
2 (2019, 2023) |
|
8 |
Brock Purdy |
SF |
+1600 |
– |
|
T9 |
Tua Tagovailoa |
MIA |
+2000 |
– |
|
T9 |
Dak Prescott |
DAL |
+2000 |
– |
|
T11 |
Jared Goff |
DET |
+2500 |
– |
|
T11 |
Aaron Rodgers |
NYJ |
+2500 |
4 (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021) |
|
T13 |
Matthew Stafford |
LAR |
+3000 |
– |
|
T13 |
Justin Herbert |
LAC |
+3000 |
– |
|
T13 |
Kirk Cousins |
ATL |
+3000 |
– |
|
T13 |
Trevor Lawrence |
JAX |
+3000 |
– |
|
17 |
Anthony Richardson |
IND |
+3500 |
– |
|
T18 |
Kyler Murray |
ARI |
+5000 |
– |
|
T18 |
Caleb Williams |
CHI |
+5000 |
– |
|
T18 |
Christian McCaffrey |
SF |
+5000 |
– |
|
21 |
Deshaun Watson |
CLE |
+7500 |
– |
|
T22 |
Will Levis |
TEN |
+100000 |
– |
|
T22 |
Justin Jefferson |
MIN |
+100000 |
– |
|
T22 |
Geno Smith |
SEA |
+100000 |
– |
|
T22 |
Baker Mayfield |
TB |
+100000 |
– |
|
T22 |
Tyreek Hill |
MIA |
+100000 |
– |
The message is crystal clear: Mahomes is the early favorite by a huge margin. He’s not favored over the field (meaning projected at more than 50% to win), of course, but that would be absolutely unheard of heading into Week 1. The NFL season is way too unpredictable for that to be realistic.
However, the distance between Mahomes and his top competitors is seriously noteworthy. The odds give Mahomes an implied 18.2% chance of winning the award. Josh Allen, in second place, is at 11.1%. Joe Burrow is at 9.1% — already only half as likely to win the award as Mahomes.
None of this is probably very surprising for Chiefs fans though. Mahomes is a two-time MVP who is in the conversation just about every year — we all know he’s capable of winning it.
We all know how important team success is (when’s the last time you saw a quarterback with a losing record win MVP?) and the Chiefs are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl this season. He checks that box.
The Chiefs have also loaded this offense with more talent than we’ve seen in the last couple years, putting him in an even better position to hang gaudy numbers for 2024. He’s a +550 favorite to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns, while nobody else has better than +900 odds. He’s also second at +750 to lead the league in passing yards (barely trailing the favorite, C.J. Stroud, who is at +700).
Mahomes offers everything you want to see in an MVP candidate, and his odds will only crawl lower and lower when he and the Chiefs get off to a hot start by knocking off the reigning MVP in Week 1.
However the odds and rankings shift, we’ll have you covered with a look at the latest changes every week throughougt the season on KC Kingdom.
